Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and Maelstrom founder, has made waves with his bold predictions for Bitcoin (BTC). He warns of a potential short-term dip to $90,000 due to tightening U.S. Treasury liquidity but envisions a staggering climb to $1 million by 2028. Do technical charts back his analysis, and what’s driving these projections? Here’s a breakdown of the five critical takeaways.
Liquidity Crunch Could Push BTC to $90,000
Hayes highlights a potential $486 billion liquidity drain as the U.S. Treasury rebuilds its General Account (TGA) after the debt ceiling resolution. Historically, Bitcoin has been sensitive to liquidity shifts. For instance, when the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) balances dropped 95%, BTC surged over 5x. Now, a liquidity contraction could pressure risk assets, with Hayes eyeing a BTC correction to $90,000–$95,000 if the impact is severe. If milder, prices might hold at $100,000 but struggle to break the $112,000 resistance.
Technical Charts Signal Caution
The charts align with Hayes’ short-term caution. Bitcoin faces a key resistance at $112,000, tested in April and June 2025 without a decisive breakout. Immediate support lies at $107,000, backed by strong price action and volume in June. A deeper correction could find support at $100,000–$102,000, seen in March and May 2025 pullbacks. The $90,000–$95,000 range, a former support in late 2024 and early 2025, is a plausible target if $100,000 gives way. Traders should watch $112,000 for bullish confirmation or a bearish slide.
Stablecoins and Banks Could Unleash $10 Trillion
Looking long-term, Hayes is bullish, driven by a potential $10.1 trillion liquidity boost. He predicts the Federal Reserve may end interest payments on reserves (IORB), and “Too Big to Fail” banks adopting stablecoins could flood the Treasury market. This liquidity wave, likened to a “trillion-dollar bazooka disguised as innovation,” could mirror past Nasdaq 100 rallies and lift fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin. Hayes sees this as a structural tailwind for BTC’s long-term growth.
The $1 Million Bitcoin Dream by 2028
Hayes’ headline-grabbing call is Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2028—a 10x jump from current levels. His advice? Go long on Bitcoin and JPMorgan, but skip Circle. He argues that stablecoin regulation and the IORB phase-out will create a liquidity-rich environment, favoring scarce assets. Unlike traditional Quantitative Easing, Hayes believes new liquidity sources, like policies under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, will drive this surge. It’s a bold bet on systemic financial shifts.
Next Two Months Are Make-or-Break
Hayes emphasizes that the next two months—through August 2025—will be pivotal. His firm, Maelstrom, may scale back Bitcoin exposure if prices falter. A clean break above $112,000 could signal bullish momentum, while failure to hold $107,000 or $100,000 may confirm a drop to $90,000–$95,000. With TGA dynamics in play, traders should monitor price action and Treasury moves closely.
What’s Next?
Hayes’ forecast blends macroeconomic insight with technical caution. The short-term risk of a liquidity-driven dip is real, but the long-term vision of a $1 million Bitcoin hinges on unprecedented financial shifts. Keep an eye on the $112,000 resistance and TGA developments. What’s your take—will Bitcoin hold strong or face a correction?
Read More:
M2 Hits Record High and Bitcoin Becomes a Bet Against Inflation
7 Crypto Investor Archetypes You’ll Meet in the Wild
Token Unlocks Incoming: Which Coins Could Soar (or Crash) and Why