Bitcoin (BTC) hit a new all-time high of $123,091.61 on July 14, 2025, only to face a slight pullback to around $118,000. With volatility spiking, investors are asking: could BTC slide back below the $100,000 mark? Here’s a breakdown of the market dynamics, expert insights, and strategies to navigate what’s next.
A Record High and a Quick Retreat
Bitcoin’s latest rally was fueled by strong trading volume, optimism from U.S. Congressional developments, and massive inflows into spot ETFs. Over the past week, BTC surged 12%, smashing through the $120,000 barrier with ease. Chart patterns showed a clear trend of higher highs and lows since June, with a powerful bullish candle on July 10 signaling robust buying pressure.
But the $123,000 peak didn’t hold. A correction followed, pulling prices back to $118,000. This dip has sparked debate: is this a healthy breather, or a sign of deeper trouble?
The $100,000 Line: Support or Illusion?
The $100,000 level isn’t just a round number—it’s a psychological and technical anchor. Traders often cluster buy and sell orders around such levels, creating battlegrounds of liquidity. Since May, BTC has held above this threshold, turning it into a key support zone between $97,000 and $104,000, with heavy volume concentrated around $103,000.
Technical indicators paint a mixed picture. The ADX sits below 25, suggesting a pause in momentum, while the Squeeze Momentum indicator hints at brewing volatility. If selling pressure mounts, a break below $100,000 could trigger stop-loss orders, potentially sparking a cascade of liquidations.
Experts Weigh In: Bullish Bets vs. Cautious Warnings
Analysts remain split. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered is bullish, projecting $200,000 by year-end, viewing $120,000 as a conservative floor. VanEck eyes $180,000 in 2025, while ARK Invest sees BTC hitting $1.2M–$2.4M by 2030. Trader Michaël van de Poppe predicts $150,000 this quarter, with $250,000 possible by December.
On the flip side, Citi’s Dirk Willer urges caution. He acknowledges regulatory tailwinds but warns that euphoria could make $100,000 more vulnerable than it seems. Simon Peters from eToro sees upside potential but notes short-term correction risks, advising long-term focus.
What Could Push Bitcoin Down?
Recent economic data adds pressure. June’s consumer inflation rose to 2.7% annually, up from 2.4%, with core inflation at 2.9%. This has cooled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with markets now eyeing September at the earliest. Higher interest rates and a stronger dollar typically dampen BTC’s appeal, as it thrives in low-rate, risk-on environments.
President Trump’s proposed tariffs—30% on EU and Mexico imports, 50% on Brazilian goods—could further stoke inflation, delaying rate cuts and squeezing risk assets like Bitcoin.
What’s Next for BTC?
The daily chart shows fading momentum after the $120,000 test, with a bearish candle and high volume signaling profit-taking. Immediate support lies at $116,000–$118,000, with the 21-day moving average at $112,000 as the next line of defense. On the weekly chart, a 9.05% gain and strong volume keep the medium-term outlook bullish, with no clear resistance above current levels.
The RSI (14) at 69.85 nears overbought territory, suggesting a potential pause. However, the MACD remains positive, indicating sustained buying interest. The Fear & Greed Index at 68 reflects growing optimism, but rapid spikes in greed often precede corrections.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: $116,000 (immediate), $112,000 (21-day MA)
- Resistance: $120,000–$123,000
- Macro triggers: U.S. economic data, Fed signals, trade policy developments
- Exchange volume: Rising volume with falling prices could signal trouble
How to Handle a Potential Drop
A dip below $100,000 might feel catastrophic, but volatility is Bitcoin’s nature. Here’s how to stay grounded:
- Hold with conviction: If your investment thesis is rooted in Bitcoin’s scarcity and resilience, short-term swings shouldn’t shake you. Long-term holders have weathered similar storms.
- Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): Buy incrementally during dips to lower your average entry price, reducing emotional stress and timing risks.
- Avoid panic selling: Sharp drops often trigger automated sales, fueling fear. Historically, Bitcoin recovers from such moves—selling in a frenzy locks in losses.
The real question isn’t the daily price but why you invested. If it’s hype, a drop might prompt a rethink. If it’s belief in BTC’s fundamentals, a correction is just noise.
What’s your take—will Bitcoin hold above $100,000, or are we in for a deeper pullback?
