As August kicks off, the crypto community is buzzing with the annual question: will Bitcoin (BTC) follow its historical tendency to dip? Past data suggests August often brings challenges for BTC, and 2025 is shaping up with mixed signals.
Historical Trends Paint a Cautious Picture
According to Coinglass, August ranks among Bitcoin’s weakest months. Over the past decade, BTC closed in the red seven times during August. In 2024, it dropped by 3.81%, and in 2023, the decline was steeper at 11.29%. The historical average loss is 7.45%, with a median of 5.91%, indicating August typically serves as a period of consolidation or correction, even in bullish years.
What’s in Store for August 2025? Technical and On-Chain Insights
Daily and Weekly Charts: Resistance Around $120,000
The daily chart shows BTC testing the $120,000 level, a local peak from last month. Immediate support lies near $108,000, where prices stabilized before the recent rally.
On the weekly chart, the trend remains bullish with higher highs and lows, but declining volume hints at potential sideways movement or a pullback soon.
On-Chain and Indicator Analysis: Key Signals
MVRV Ratio: Elevated Profits
The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares current market value to the average purchase price of circulating coins, stands at 2.2. A reading above 2 suggests a “heated” market with significant unrealized profits, often a precursor to profit-taking.
SOPR: Steady Profit-Taking
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) tracks whether coins are sold at a profit or loss. Currently slightly above 1, it indicates sales are profitable but not frenzied, supporting the case for a possible August correction.
Funding Rates: Balanced Sentiment
Funding rates, which reflect the balance between long and short positions in futures markets, are mildly positive at +0.006%. This suggests a neutral market without excessive leverage, reducing the risk of mass liquidations.
Bitcoin ETF Flows: Late July Outflows
Data from CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin ETFs ended July with a net outflow of $114.8 million. Despite recent inflows, this pullback may signal cautious institutional appetite heading into August.
BTC Dominance: Losing Ground
Bitcoin’s market dominance slipped from 64.7% to 61.3% over the past month. Gains by Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins suggest capital rotation, potentially easing buying pressure on BTC in the near term.
On-Chain Volume: July Surge Fades
On-chain volume spiked above $100 billion daily in early July but tapered off later in the month. This slowdown hints that August may lack the momentum seen earlier.
August Faces Historical and Technical Headwinds
Despite Bitcoin’s bullish weekly structure, several factors—high unrealized profits (MVRV), ETF outflows, declining dominance, and fading on-chain volume—point to a potentially sluggish start to August, with risks of a correction. Key support holds at $108,000, with $100,000 as the next level if breached. Resistance remains at $120,000, and only a decisive breakout would shift the outlook.
